SA or AUS Day 3 WTC Final 2025: Who has a better chance of winning the WTC Final?

South Africa’s dreams hang on by a thread

It has been a really hard time for South Africa in the past in ICC tournaments. To put things into perspective, the Proteas across men’s, women’s, U-19 men’s, and U-19 women’s have tasted nothing but heartbreak in the last few years. They have lost the final of the U-19 Women’s World Cup in 2025, the Women’s T20 World Cup in 2024, and the Men’s T20 World Cup in 2024. Among these heartbreaks are the semi-final losses in the Champions Trophy in 2025, the U-19 Men’s World Cup in 2024, the Men’s ODI World Cup in 2023, and the Women’s ODI World Cup in 2021. 

The Temba Bavuma-led side has an opportunity to not only win a title for the Rainbow Nation after 27 years but also give a lot to cheer about to the millions of passionate fans in South Africa. The lead for Australia is still 218 runs, and Bavuma and his men would be looking to get rid of the remaining two wickets as quickly as possible. Targets around 200 get chased in the fourth innings quite regularly, but the pressure of doing so in the final of the WTC will be immeasurable on the South African shoulders.

In addition to the cricket being played on the field, there are talks doing the rounds on social media as to how the Proteas, irrespective of the players and the format, have gone on to choke in high-octane moments. 

Australia’s shot at making history

The Australian team, led by Pat Cummins, has a great chance at making history by becoming the first team to defend its WTC title. The game is slightly tilted towards them with the bowling lineup they possess to skittle South Africa out cheaply in the fourth innings.

While skipper Cummins has already made his mark in the clash by registering the best bowling figures at the Lord’s Stadium. Mitchell Starc also provided a couple of crucial breakthroughs with the ball in hand in the first innings. Josh Hazlewood, who took a solitary wicket in the first innings, has the impeccable record of not ever losing the final. To accompany the three pacers, there is Nathan Lyon. Both Marco Jansen and Starc have created a rough that he can use to trouble the South Africans in the fourth innings. 

With a lead of 218 runs, the first task for Australia would be to make sure that they do not gift away the remaining two wickets easily. Starc is no mug with the bat in hand, and Lyon has often in the past showcased resilience. With the pitch wearing out naturally, the longer these two, along with Hazlewood bat would allow the Australian bowlers to have better conditions. With rain around the corner in the remaining three days, the 2023 champions would know that there would be enough rest for their three pacers to keep charging against the Proteas.

Who does the stats and history favour in the clash?

There have been only nine instances where a team has made the highest total of a game in the fourth innings. Among those nine times, only three teams have gone on to win a game. The last time it occurred was the Stokes’ special at Headingley in 2019. It was Australia that was on the losing side of one of the most memorable test matches in the history of the game.

In close to 150 games at Lord’s, only four times has a target of more than 200 been chased down successfully. It was England who did it the last time around against New Zealand in 2022.

Conclusion: Who is the favourite to win the WTC Final?

The records suggest that the chances of South Africa making a successful chase in the fourth innings are pretty slim. However, the history of the game has shown that the sport is pretty unpredictable. It would take a heroic performance from the SA batters if they go on to win this clash. For the Pat Cummins-led team, they will take a look at the records book and know that Australia would be a slight favourite to successfully defend their title.