India Chances for WTC 2025: Can India Still Qualify for WTC Final 2025?

WTC Standings

After the latest results from Adelaide, Australia and Gqeberha, South Africa, the Proteas hold the top position in the WTC Standings. In 10 matches, the Temba Bavuma-led side has won six matches, lost three, and drawn one. They are followed by the defending champions, Australia. In 14 matches, Australia has won nine, lost four, and drawn one. Currently, the two teams are in pole position to qualify for the WTC Final at Lord’s, London in June 2025.

India, who are placed in third position have played 16 matches and won nine of them, lost six, and drawn one. Sri Lanka on the other hand who is placed fourth has played 11 matches winning five of them and has lost six. Apart from these four teams none of the five teams stand a chance of making it to the WTC Final 2025. However, Pakistan for instance can hamper the chances of South Africa in the two-match series later this month.

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How can India qualify for the WTC Final 2025?

Since the start of the World Test Championship in 2019, there is no denying that India has been the most consistent team in the competition. They have made it to the finals both times, but have lost the trophy to New Zealand and Australia. In the 2023-25 cycle, India finds itself in uncharted territory though. For the first time in the history of the competition, the chances of making it to the final look bleak for India. However, the two-time finalists are not out of the race.

India has three tests left in the cycle against Australia. Their priority would be to avoid losses at all costs which is something that they have not done in down under since 1985/86. At that time the three tests resulted in draws, however, that would not be enough for India to qualify for the WTC Final 2025. The Rohit Sharma-led side would need at least two wins and a draw to book their spot for the final at the iconic Lord’s Stadium in June 2025. Salvaging two wins and a draw from tests in Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney would mean that the results of other teams would not affect India’s chances of qualifying for the final.

India wins BGT 3-2

India winning the Border-Gavaskar Trophy would be a historic result as the visitors would then have won the series thrice in a row away from home. It is something that none of the teams have done before. But what would it mean for India’s qualification scenarios?

India can still qualify for the WTC Finals if they win the series 3-2, but would need to depend on the results from the South Africa vs Pakistan series and Sri Lanka vs Australia series.  

Pakistan would either have to draw the series against the Proteas 0-0 or win the series by any margin. The Shan Masood-led side would be creating history if they could avoid a loss in any match or win the series. None of the Pakistani sides have done so in the past. If South Africa manages to win a test or even the series then India would need a favor from their southern neighbours, Sri Lanka. 

The Sri Lankan team would need to draw at least one test against Australia to help India qualify for the WTC final. If the island nation can do so then India would qualify for the final with the second spot. In the last eight tests between the two sides in Sri Lanka, the hosts have won four matches while the visitors have won only twice. So if recent history is anything to go by, Sri Lanka would fancy their chances of not only avoiding a loss but snatching the series win as well.

India wins BGT 2-1 or draws

India winning the BGT with a 2-1 margin would mean that they create history by becoming only the third team after England and West Indies to win three test series in a row in Australia. Even though it would be a historic result, a 2-1 victory would dampen the visitors' chances of making it to their third WTC final. India could still qualify though with the help of Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Pakistan would need to clean-sweep South Africa at the Centurion in the Boxing Day Test and at Cape Town in the New Year Test. The visitors have never won a test series in South Africa so a clean sweep would be a pretty tough ask. If Pakistan does not clean sweep the Proteas then the hosts will qualify for the finals. 

Sri Lanka would have to make sure to avoid a loss in each of the two games. If the series ends in a 0-0 draw or Sri Lanka wins then India will make their third WTC final. The last series in Sri Lanka between the two sides was drawn 1-1 while the hosts clean-swept Australia in 2016. Sri Lankan conditions and their spin attack would certainly make life tough for the Pat Cummins-led side to win a test in early 2025.

The same scenarios would be put in place if BGT ends in a draw either 1-1 or 2-2.

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India loses BGT

If India loses the series by any margin there is a very slim chance that the two-time finalists could still be in contention for making it to Lord’s in June next year. 

To make the final in this case, India would need Pakistan to clean-sweep South Africa. Along with a historic clean sweep from their arch-rivals, India would need Australia to at least draw one test against Sri Lanka in early 2025.
 

How can South Africa qualify for the WTC Final 2025?

South Africa with their 2-0 series win against Sri Lanka is now in the best position to qualify for the WTC Final 2025. The Proteas need to win only one of the two matches against Pakistan to seal their spot in the final irrespective of results from other matches.

How can Australia qualify for the WTC Final 2025?

Australia has five matches left in the WTC 2023-25 which is the most for any team in the competition. The defending champions need only three wins to seal their spot in the WTC Final. However, if Australia can win two matches against India then the Pat Cummins-led side can reach the WTC Final without any help from other teams.

How can Sri Lanka qualify for the WTC Final 2025?

Sri Lanka’s chances of making it to the finals of the World Test Championship have taken a major hit after their 2-0 loss to South Africa. They have two matches left in the cycle against Australia. For starters, Sri Lanka would need to win those two matches. After winning the two tests in the Warne-Muralitharan Trophy, the hosts would still be dependent on other teams to make it into the finals. 

WTC Final 2025 Date, Venue and Teams

The World Test Championship Final will take place in Lord’s, London. The final will take place from June 11 to 15. June 16th will be the reserve day if needed. Lord’s Cricket Ground is known as the Home of Cricket and will be hosting its first WTC Final.